High Risk of Climate Tipping Points Under Current Global Policies

New research warns that multiple climate tipping points are likely to be triggered if global policies continue on their present trajectory. Scientists evaluated the risk of tipping events across 16 critical Earth systems, including the collapse of major ice sheets, the dieback of tropical coral reefs, and the decline of vast forests.

Published in the journal Earth System Dynamics, the paper is titled "High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw." The researchers' most cautious estimate suggests a 62% average risk of tipping points being triggered based on current global warming projections.

However, the study also highlights that adopting more sustainable future pathways with lower greenhouse gas emissions would dramatically reduce the risk.

Conducted by teams from the universities of Exeter and Hamburg, the study additionally found that carbon released from certain tipping points—specifically, Amazon rainforest dieback and permafrost thaw—would likely not be enough to push other systems past their own tipping points.

Lead author Jakob Deutloff emphasized the hopeful message from their findings: "The power to prevent climate tipping points is still in our hands. By shifting towards a more sustainable future, we can significantly lower the risk. Moreover, even if tipping points like Amazon dieback or permafrost thaw are breached, they may not necessarily trigger further cascading effects."

Tipping points refer to critical thresholds where small changes can push a system into a dramatically different and often irreversible state.

The study assessed these probabilities across five different future scenarios, known as shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).

Professor Tim Lenton, from Exeter's Global Systems Institute, reinforced the urgent need for action: "Climate tipping points could have devastating consequences for humanity. It is clear that without rapid changes, we are on a dangerous path. We need urgent global action—including triggering positive tipping points in our societies and economies—to steer towards a safe and sustainable future."

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